How a World Order Ends

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And What Comes in Its Wake

A stable world order is a rare thing. When one does arise, it tends to come after a great convulsion that creates both the conditions and the desire for something new. It requires a stable distribution of power and broad acceptance of the rules that govern the conduct of international relations. It also needs skillful statecraft, since an order is made, not born. And no matter how ripe the starting conditions or strong the initial desire, maintaining it demands creative diplomacy, functioning institutions, and effective action to adjust it when circumstances change and buttress it when challenges come. Continue reading

Putin urges Russian nuclear weapons boost

A Russian Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile is driven through Red Square in Moscow in May 2009 (AFP Photo/DMITRY KOSTYUKOV)

 

Moscow (AFP) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday called for the country to reinforce its military nuclear potential and praised the army’s performance in its Syria campaign.

In a speech that recapped military activities in 2016, Putin said the army’s preparedness has “considerably increased” and called for continued improvement that would ensure it can “neutralise any military threat”.

“We need to strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces, especially with missile complexes that can reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defence systems,” the Kremlin strongman said. Continue reading

Russia´s cyber-operations alter balance of power – tougher response called for

Russia is alterering the balance of power with superior human resources in the cyber-realm and a strategy and will to used them offensively, including via proxies – and lack of western response encourages escalation says Jarno Limnéll.

Cyber-narrative in the United States has changed during the last year. China and its economic cyber-espionage has been in the centre of narrative for years, but now politicians and especially the intelligence community emphasise Russia´s cyber-threat.

“Russian cyber-attacks rank as the greatest threat to the United States´ national security”, the US director of national Intelligence James Clapper has stated. Admiral Michael Rogers, director of NSA and commander of the US Cyber Command has publicly estimated that, “Russia has very capable cyber-operators who can and do work with speed, precision and stealth.” These statements were not made by coincidence. Continue reading

What Will Happen in Europe When Britain Leaves

From 2007 with lessons for today:

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Soon, Britain will leave the European Union. (Stock Xchng)

 

It could be one of the most momentous, watershed events ever to occur on the European continent.

The time is drawing nearer when Britain will leave the European Union.

How will this development affect life on the Continent? Drastically.

Over the years, Britain has been the biggest hindrance to the unification project proceeding forward. Where France and Germany had ambitious designs for European unity, Britain viewed it as a take-it-or-leave-it economic venture. This fundamental difference, coupled with Britain’s sheer size and political influence, has made London the resident counterweight to Franco-German ambition. Continue reading

China Unveils a Dangerous New Economic Weapon During a Perfectly Timed Distraction

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Caption: Representatives of the founding nations of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank applaud after Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled a sculpture during the bank’s opening ceremony in Beijing on January 16. (MARK SCHIEFELBEIN/AFP/Getty Images)

 

China’s new Asian International Investment Bank could upset the balance of power in Asia.

On January 16, China inaugurated its new international investment bank. In a lavish, ribbon-cutting ceremony at the renowned Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the assembled dignitaries that they were part of “a historical moment.”

Yet most people totally missed the significance.

While Xi was inaugurating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (aiib)—a project that former United States Treasury Secretary Larry Summers earlier called a “wake-up call” for America and the most important economic event since America led the world off the gold standard in 1971—the world was focused on collapsing stock indexes.

And for good reason.

Continue reading

Analyst: Impossible for Saudis to destroy U.S. shale industry

Because of its mid-cost nature, compared to the high cost of conventional drilling, shale will rebound quickly, according to Daniel Yergin, founder of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, who said groups are already in place to grab the assets of bankrupt U.S. shale drillers.

“The management may change and the companies may change but the resources will still be there,” Yergin told the Daily Telegraph. Continue reading

Russian strikes again expose US disarray

New York (AFP) – Russia’s dramatic entry Wednesday into the Syrian war put the United States on the back foot once again and left Washington struggling to regain the military and diplomatic initiative.

As US Secretary of State John Kerry was in New York trying to coordinate with his Kremlin opposite number Sergei Lavrov, a Russian officer contacted the US embassy in Baghdad.

His message was simple: Russian jets are about to launch air strikes in Syria, please stay out of their way. Continue reading

China Set To Deploy Nuclear Sub That Can Hit US Mainland Targets, Pentagon Says

An article that’s spot on, yet missing crucial pieces of information: America has been sold New Lies for Old for decades now, and will eventually be hit with One Clenched Fist. The sword is coming.

 

China has made two things absolutely clear this year: 1) if Beijing thinks you may be inclined to sell stocks into a falling market, the consequences for you could be dire, and 2) the PLA navy is quite serious about projecting China’s maritime ambitions to the rest of the world.

Evidence of the latter point is readily observable in the South China Sea, where dredgers have been busy for months building man-made islands atop reefs in the Spratlys much to the chagrin of Washington and its regional allies.

Then there was the PLA’s unexpected arrival in Yemen back in March when a naval frigate showed up in Aden and evacuated 225 foreign nationals.

And who can forget the five ships that cruised by just 12 miles off the coast of Alaska as Obama toured the state.

As if all of that wasn’t enough, at least one commander in Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian Arab Army now claims Chinese personnel are on their way to Latakia.  Continue reading

Report: Chinese Navy’s Fleet Will Outnumber U.S. by 2020

China Sub

 

China has plans to grow its navy to 351 ships by 2020 as the Chinese continue to develop their military’s ability to strike global targets, according to a new report.

The 2014 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recommended to Congress the U.S. Navy respond by building more ships and increase its presence in the Pacific region – a strategy they U.S. military has already started. Continue reading

China Military Buildup Shifts Balance of Power in Asia in Beijing’s Favor

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Congressional report warns the danger of U.S.-China conflict is rising

China’s decades-long buildup of strategic and conventional military forces is shifting the balance of power in Asia in Beijing’s favor and increasing the risk of a conflict, according to a forthcoming report by a congressional China commission.

China’s military has greatly expanded its air and naval forces and is sharply increasing its missile forces, even while adopting a more hostile posture against the United States and regional allies in Asia, states a late draft of the annual report of the bipartisan U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

As a result, “the potential for security miscalculation in the region is rising,” the report said, using the euphemism for a conflict or shootout between Chinese forces and U.S. forces or those of its regional allies.

The report paints an alarming picture of China’s growing aggressiveness and expanding power, including development of two new stealth jets, the first deployment of a naval expeditionary amphibious group to the Indian Ocean, and aerial bombing exercises held in Kazakhstan. Continue reading

Dr Marc Faber: The Terminal Phase of a Credit and Asset Bubble

In the gilded ballroom of Hyatt’s Savoy ballroom, World War D‘s opening speaker Dr Mark Faber delivered a blunt message: the old world order is over.

The US reached a peak in prosperity and influence in the world in the 1950s or 1960s,’ said Faber. But since the 70s the superpower has been locked into a cycle of bubbles, busts and growing debt.

Debt, and the way it has manipulated the global economy, was the main theme of Faber’s address.

There are some people who claim to be economists who will tell you debts do not matter,’ Faber told the packed ballroom.

But the real story is different…. Continue reading

Ukraine Had No Option – Drop EU for Russia or Be Crushed

Collapse of talks a blow to European 
balance of power as Kremlin sanctions 
trump historic trade deal

Twenty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is slipping back under Kremlin control. Ukraine’s shock decision to opt for Vladimir Putin’s Russia and pull out of EU talks on the eve of an historic deal is a dramatic upset to the European balance of power. It is the first major defeat for the EU in its eastward march since the fall of Communism. While the region’s geopolitics remain fluid, the upset may prove as fateful as the move by the Kossack chief Bohdan Khmelnytsky to turn his back on the West and accept Tsarist suzerainty in the 1640s.

“Ukraine’s government suddenly bowed deeply to the Kremlin. The politics of brutal pressure evidently work,” said Karl Bildt, Sweden’s Foreign Minister. Continue reading

China may have largest Pacific fleet by 2020: US

Washington: A US congressional advisory panel sounded a warning Wednesday about China’s military buildup, predicting Beijing could possess the largest fleet of modern submarine and combatant ships in the western Pacific by 2020.

The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission said China’s military modernisation is altering the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region and challenging decades of US pre-eminence. Continue reading

Armed Caspian becomes dangerous

At the end of September – early October, Russia and Iran will carry out joint military drills in the Caspian Sea to train maritime security-enforcement operations. Iranian military attaché to Moscow Col. Suleiman Adeli said: “Iran and Russia want Caspian states to maintain maritime security without interference of foreign states. They consider presence of foreigners a source of tensions and conflict.”

When they mention “foreign interference”, they usually keep the US in mind. Although, it is not only the US that has political, military-strategic and economic interests in the region. The EU and China have own palates. The reason why Caspian states arm themselves is terrorism, extremism, separatism and expansionism of the West. These are the new threats of the Caspian Sea. The US strategy in the Middle East remains a sensitive issue for the Caspian Sea, but the steps made in the Middle East to disrupt the balance of power by pressing on Syria may cause problems for all Caspian and Trans-Caucasus states. Continue reading

Zones of Future Conflicts

BEIJING/WASHINGTON/BERLIN (Own report) – German government advisors are warning against an arms race and possible military confrontations in East Asia. As a recent study by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) explains, China’s attempts to take control over its coastal waters and its maritime trade routes collide with the USA’s attempts to uphold Washington’s claims to maintain its “international leadership role.” The arms buildup of the Chinese Navy and the initial shift of US armed forces to the Pacific are colliding head-on and could – in the worst case – result in armed conflict. In effect, as a NATO partner of the United States, Germany would also be implicated in cases of conflict. German naval vessels are already being incorporated with growing frequency into the US Navy’s combat units. Berlin is also contributing to the expansion of NATO military cooperation with the pro-western countries of east and Southeast Asia, and the Pacific regions through military policy measures and arms exports. German naval circles are also demanding that the German Navy soon be given an arms upgrade and an offensive posture. Continue reading