A New Era Of Geopolitical Risk In Global Oil Markets

 

Amid never ending talk and speculation over how many more barrels of Iranian oil will be removed from global markets once sanctions slated to hit Iran’s oil production on November 6 take effect, some are claiming that geopolitical factors have driven the market just as much as supply fundamentals.

At Russia Energy Week in Moscow last week, both Saudi and Russian energy ministers said they see rising geopolitical risk as driving the recent oil price increase at a time when there is sufficient supply in the market. Of course, the notion of sufficient supply will be tested soon, as will both Saudi Arabia’s and OPEC’s spare production capacity will be called on to maintain this supply.

Russia Taking Full Advantage Of Greek Crisis

In the meantime, the turmoil offers an opportunity for Russia to advance its interests. Of course, the EU is an absolutely critical trading partner for Russia, so if the bloc starts to fray at the seams, that presents financial risks to an already struggling Russian economy. Russia’s central bank governor Elvira Nabiulllina warned in June of the brewing threat that a Greek default would have on Russia. “We do consider that scenario as one of possible risks which would increase turbulence in the financial markets in the European market, bearing in mind the fact the European Union is one of major trading partners, and we are definitely worried by it,” she said in an interview with CNBC.

With the economic fallout in mind, Russia does see strategic opportunities in growing discord within Europe. First, Russia is pushing its Turkish Stream Pipeline, a natural gas pipeline that it has proposed that would run from Russia through Turkey and link up in Greece. From there, Russian gas would travel on to the rest of Europe. Russia is vying against a separate pipeline project that would send natural gas from the Caspian Sea through Turkey and on to Europe.

Greece on the verge of default: flirting with Russia, quarrels with the EU

Petrakos told Spiegel that Greece wants “to deepen its relations with Russia in the energy sector” and get significant mutual benefit from this. The Greek delegation will talk to the Russian Minister of Energy, Alexander Novak, and the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller. The periodical reminds that Gazprom controls about 70% of the Greek gas market.

Russia to continue developing Arctic oil, gas resources despite sanctions

What the Russians see is skyrocketing oil prices that aren’t too far away around the corner. They know that this ‘high’ won’t last too long. It also helps them lay claim to the Arctic region and enables them to send the Russian military out to enforce their wish in grabbing hold of the Arctic.

 

Despite falling prices for raw materials, companies should maintain their investment plans not to lose what is done, Russian Energy Minister said in an interview to the Rossiiskaya Gazeta

MOSCOW, January 22. /TASS/. Russia to continue implementing Arctic oil and gas projects despite Western sanctions and low oil prices, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview to the Rossiiskaya Gazeta that will be published on Friday, January 23.

Russia and China strengthen oil and gas deals

Chinese and Russian oil companies signed several deals during the recent Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation annual meeting in Beijing, indicating that the two countries have entered a honeymoon period in the area of energy cooperation, Guangzhou’s 21st Century Business Herald reports.

China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) signed framework deals with Russian oil company Rosneft and gas supplier Gazprom Nov. 9 for buying a stake in an oilfield in Russia and in gas supplies.

The deals came as Moscow saw a further drop in oil prices and in its currency, the rouble, since July, which has hurt the Russian economy, the newspaper noted.

Russia Proposes Creation of Global Energy Market Regulator

MOSCOW, May 15 (RIA Novosti) – Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has floated the idea of creating a global energy market regulator that would keep its finger on the pulse of energy networks and compel participants to deliver on their contractual obligations.

“There is an urgent need for an adequate international institutional structure that would regulate international cooperation and form a set of tools for shaping the energy market,” Novak said Thursday at the 14th International Energy Forum.