Over the last decade, I’ve found my opinions coinciding more and more with those of SocGen strategist and “uber-bear” Albert Edwards. Last week he hit the headlines again with a claim that a “gut-wrenching slump” in profits amounts to an almost-certain predictor of recession. While the historic evidence for this is compelling, I’m not so sure this time couldn’t be slightly different — at least in terms of causes and effects. Continue reading
Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone
The City of London’s most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone.
Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash. Continue reading
Many experts continue saying the second half of September 2015 and the first half of October 2015 is the beginning of a major and imminent turning point for the world economy — and much graver than what was seen in 2008 or the Great Depression. For example, former Reagan advisor Martin Armstrong and his forecasting model that has never gone wrong are predicting a hit in the first week of October 2015, or 2015.75.
See also: The Shift in Public Confidence: 2015.75
Batten down the hatches.
Societe Generale Economist Albert Edwards might have finally out-beared himself. He says the China devaluation is a step towards “a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”
In his latest note, Edwards says the Chinese currency devaluation is the beginning of a period of serious foreign exchange weaknesses in Asia. Continue reading
The UK economy is a ticking time bomb set to explode after the general election, according to a leading City commentator who has warned of a fresh crisis for the pound.
Albert Edwards, who heads the global strategy team at investment bank Société Générale and is well known for downbeat views, chides the coalition for a legacy of “grotesquely wide deficits” in both the public sector finances and on the UK’s current account – its overall trading position with the rest of the world. Continue reading
The Japanese yen goes into freefall. China’s fragile economy tips over the edge. A wave of profit-crushing deflation comes washing over the U.S. and Europe. Investors panic.
That’s the view of perennial pessimist Albert Edwards. The London-based analyst and his team at investment bank Societe Generale SA have been ranked No. 1 for global strategy in surveys by Thomson Reuters Extel every year since 2007, even with a history of saying unpleasant things that few want to hear.
“My role is to step back from the excessive enthusiasm that builds up in the market, and to just say, ‘This is wrong. This is going to go horribly wrong,’” the 53-year-old said by phone last week. Continue reading
The stock of capital flowing into emerging markets has doubled from $4 trillion to $8 trillion since the Lehman Crisis, chasing a catch-up growth story that looks tired and has largely sputtered out in Brazil, Russia and South Africa.
Much of the money has gone into debt, with falling economic returns. This is the next shoe to drop in the festering saga of global imbalances. All it will take is a gear-shift by the US Federal Reserve and the inevitable dollar surge that follows. It was the Volcker Fed that set off Latin America’s defaults in the early 1980s. It was the mighty dollar that set off Mexico’s Tequila crisis, and then the East Asian chain-reaction in the 1990s. Continue reading
Global Geopolitics 