Entry after entry here has delved into the high probability that Iran already has the bomb. One morning, people will wake up to an in-your-face announcement from the Ayatollah or Ahmadinejad with the news de jour. 99% of the public will be shocked and bewildered about how this was ever allowed to happen. Meanwhile, the remaining 1% continuing to analyze and be ahead of the curve, knowing the (un)intelligence community is in shambles, slow and always “shocked” at every advancement our enemies make, will surely know that the next world war may not be far behind.
Hopefully the assessment is wrong and hopefully the Iranian regime isn’t even close, but they show no signs of stopping. Sadly, this still means one of two undesirable outcomes: 1) War before the Persians acquire nukes, or 2) War after they acquire nukes.
The White House and President Obama’s supporters insist that he’s making his first trip to Israel next month to assure the Jewish state that if push comes to shove with Iran, he’ll have Israel’s back. But North Korea’s nuclear test Tuesday morning could indicate that it’s already too late for that. If North Korea has the bomb, then for all practical purposes Iran does, too. If that’s so, then Obama’s policy of prevention has failed, and containment—a policy that the president has repeatedly said is not an option—is in fact all Washington has.
If this sounds hyperbolic, consider the history of extensive North Korean-Iranian cooperationon a host of military and defense issues, including ballistic missiles and nuclear development, that dates back to the 1980s. This cooperation includes North Korean sales of technology and arms, like the BM-25, a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and reaching Western Europe; Iran’s Shahab 3 missile is based on North Korea’s Nodong-1 and is able to reach Israel. Iran has a contigent of Iranian weapons engineers and defense officials stationed in North Korea. Meantime, North Korean scientists visit Iran. And last fall, both countries signed a memorandum of understanding regarding scientific, academic, and technological issues.
Global Geopolitics 