A worst-case scenario would begin with a war in the north that trickles south.
An Israeli government report is warning the country that it must prepare for the possibility of going to war with Iran—invading the Islamic Republic—in order to prevent it from becoming fully entrenched in Syria.
The Institute for National Security Studies’ “Strategic Assessment for Israel 2018-2019,” released Wednesday by the Tel Aviv-based think tank, states, in part:
“Israel maintains a very strong basic deterrent against security challenges that are below the threshold of war. At the same time, most of the fronts facing Israel are very volatile: Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip. In all three, despite the existence of mutual deterrence between the sides, there is a potential for escalation toward a broad confrontation and a general war, more than one front at a time.”
The biggest threat, according to the report, if of an all-out war in the north that would include Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria. Such a confrontation would very likely spill over to the south, and Israel very likely would face attacks from terrorist groups based in the Gaza Strip, which was deemed the “whole case scenario.”
The report also assesses the threat of Iran’s clandestine nuclear weapons program, as well, noting that while the U.S. is currently pressing a “get tough” pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic, it is not yet ready to engage militarily:
“In view of Trump’s departure from the nuclear agreement and the possibility that Iran will resume its nuclear activities, the defense budget and Israel’s deployment and force buildup should enable operational readiness for a move against a nuclear Iran.
“Iranian support for Hezbollah’s power buildup in Lebanon is not new, but the quality of the weapons transferred over the past two years to Hezbollah is worrisome. The main sources of concern for Israel are the project to convert inaccurate missiles and rockets into precision missiles, to improve Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities, and to supply long-range sea-to-sea missiles to the organization.”
The report concluded, however, that Israel must prepare for the possibility that its air strikes campaign against Iran/Hezbollah in Syria must be expanded to Lebanon or Iran directly. Noting that the Syrian army is already being rehabilitated, it also warned that eventually Damascus will become more assertive in responding against Israeli air strikes, and that Israel must make every effort to “avoid a clash with the Russian forces there.”
Full article: Israeli Report: Invasion of Iran May Be Necessary (TruNews)