To sum it all up: Civil unrest as described here is as likely as an impeachment of Trump: Zero chance… no matter how dramatic the portrayal of each upcoming ‘scandal’ and threat thereof. However, it will prove to be a tumultuous four years and a test of patience for the American public.
Because He’s TNT
Sometimes contributor Bon Scott who happens to be not only a Trump supporter but more importantly a Constitutional expert and Big “L” Libertarian had this to say in response the ‘Impeach Trump’ escalation.
10,000,000 people will march on Washington if they try to impeach Trump… they will be heavily armed. I will be one of them. No kidding
While our colleague seems given to hyperbole consider this. Last year as early as February he said:
“Trump can win. Ignore the polls. Polls are meaningless in an election with so many “shock events”. The truth is Donald Trump can win the election in a landslide.
That was true. We quoted him in our October 2016 post HERE
Can you argue With Bon?
The truth is, while our pseudonymous contributor is given to outrageously couched statements, he has picked up on something that is close to our hearts. You can see it in how polls are just wrong consistently. And to us that is explainable. The statistical world relies to heavily on polls. Polls are merely “snapshots’ of moments.
What is not revealed in polls is the subjectivity of the person being polled!. We know the bias of pollsters. But what has been ignored for years is subjective probability. That concept relates to trends when humans are involved.
Do you think people are going to be honest with pollsters anymore? No, they say what you want to hear so they can move on. Voting is very private. And people are taking back that privacy. On a broader scale, subjective or conditional probability includes drifts or trends. Nassim Taleb is a key proponent of this, and we count him as a genius in taking his options knowledge and applying it to many fields in need of improvement. We also enjoy his lambasting those dogmatists that do not get it. Jim Rickards is another subscriber to Bayesian theorems.
What Is Bayesian Probability?
Pollsters Do Not Get it
This is the essence of the core ignorance of pollsters and statisticians. They ignore the human factor. And with that, they miss grass roots macro trends like the populism that triggered Brexit. They do not see what our friend Bon does, that people are not numbers, and the more we rely on models dogmatically, the more likely we are to be surprised. Or as he would say : Dont be stupid! Trump is going to win in a landslide.
So while numbers are counted by Nate Silver, conditional/ subjectivity of the person polled is not factored in. This is the problem in modern polling and stats.
Option Traders Don’t Get it
What are the Odds of a DC March if a Populist President is Impeached?
Can we afford to ignore “Bon”, our colleague who is quite sane, does not represent the lunatic fringe, and is intimately aware that while Trump may not be a beltway darling, he has governed through populism.
Witness how Trump castrated the media with his “Fake News” press conference. He literally made people reject the MSM info as false and further likely turned people off to even looking at it.
He effectively put them in a box where they could not sell their wares anymore.
This is no easy task. Winning elections via populism is easy game. But actually governing that way is not easy. We’d dare say, it has not been done ever in a Republic.
So here we are. A populist-ly elected President who has thus far governed through populism. A president with a loyal following that is likely to not take an unconstitutional impeachment sitting down. Trump will not go quietly into the night. He will appeal to the public. He is a narcissist. And to his credit, narcissists are all about winning popularity contests.
People vs. Elites
Do you want to bet against a DC march if Trump is impeached? Do you want to be short Gold or long stocks if that happens?
A march would be an exponential increase in uncertainty. The people vs the Elites. And in the end with Elitist power at their disposal including manipulating the press, social media, revoking freedom of speech and rights to assemble and restricting gun ownership; it wont be enough. There will be the fallback to the use of force. People in power always lean on that when needed. And while they may have learned marketing and manipulation tricks, at bottom, there is always metal hammer inside that velvet wrapper you see.
People are fed up. Impeach at Your Own Risk
We personally own 2 guns. A Benelli shotgun for skeet, and a 357 magnum for target range shooting. As believers in gun control laws for non law abiding citizens, we will not be inclined to subscribe to giving up what protects us from a deep state that does what it wants and when it loses, changes the rules. This is the potential beginning of the libertarian left and right People aligning against the authoritarian left and right Elitists.
Impeachment Adds Uncertainty, Not Closure
So this will not end with impeachment. It will only stir more problems at grass roots levels. To tell 50% of the country that already distrusts its institutions that those same institutions are collaborating to kill off their president may be a spark of revolt unlike anything seen since the 1960s.
This is the cause that would unite libertarians, rednecks, NRA types, uneducated (but no less human and entitled to constitutional rights) and the silently suffering suburban middle class under one banner. People evolve at their own pace. Stop telling us what is best for us. That is not working out so well for you in the world. Don’t do it here
Full article: Banker: “One Million Will March On Washington If They Impeach Trump. They Will Be Armed” (ZeroHedge)