Infiltrate, redirect, divide… and conquer. The objective is not only to break the EU, but get NATO kicked out. And here, we see again new information being brought up that the refugee crisis was Russian orchestrated.
On December 13, France will hold the second round of regional elections, which are considered a dress rehearsal before the parliamentary and presidential elections in 2017. UNIAN gathered expert opinions on what the change of the French political elites would mean for Ukraine.
In the first round of local elections, the far-right National Front led by Marine Le Pen showed the best results in six out of 13 regions of the metropolis scoring 27.88% of the votes across the country. At the same time the Republicans Party led by Nicolas Sarkozy, in alliance with the centrists, took 26.98% and topped the lists in four regions. The ruling Socialists led by Francois Hollande received 23.33% becoming leaders in only three regions.
The fuse against the populists
Despite the fact that such a failure of the traditional parties made the local political elite plunge into a state of despondency, there is no reason to expect the same resounding success of Le Pen in the second round of regional elections, said the political scientist, director of the Institute of Global Strategies, Vadym Karasyov.
In particular, that’s because the French electoral system aims to ensure that the two key forces dominate in the representative bodies – left-socialist forces, led by Francois Hollande, and Sarkozy’s Republicans. “The radicals are screened out in the second round. Moreover, [the radicals’ success in the first round made the moderate political forces realize the seriousness of a threat and mobilize,” he said.
According to the diplomat, an expert at the Maidan of Foreign Affairs foundation, Oleksandr Khara, the success of the extreme right in France has been forecast, in general, as this is a pan-European trend in the wake of terrorist attacks and problems with the wave of refugees from Syria. “These are the reasons why societies resort to extremes. And it is the National Front of Marie Le Pen which resonates with anti-immigrant sentiment, opposing the EU as an institution. So, of course, the French voted exactly for the National Front,” he said.
“Cherchez Charles de Gaulle”
However, whatever the local results of the radical forces, the ruling socialists should think seriously about the upcoming parliamentary and presidential campaigns, especially considering that the Socialists have no new leader while the leadership qualities of Francois Hollande raise many questions. “Now that the role of military geopolitics is growing globally, there is a demand for strong leaders,” said Vadym Karasyov. “Why does France have plenty of Vladimir Putin’s sympathizers, both implicit and explicit? Or why are there so many sympathizers of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Middle East? There is a demand around the world for strong leaders amid instability, when all institutions are being destroyed, scattered, softened and becoming jelly-like.”
In the context of the war on terror, increased terrorist threat and militarization of geopolitics as a key factor in foreign relations, France may see a demand for the new Charles de Gaulle, with Nicolas Sarkozy actively pressing to be one such leader. The latter, according to Karasyov, is clearly shifting to the right, moving closer to Putin and Russia, pushing out the National Front of Marie Le Pen.
In this regard, according to Chornovil, “there is a growing suspicion that this flow of refugees to Europe was well orchestrated.” The political analyst recalls that refugees have “suddenly” and massively rushed to Europe just at a time when Russia became actively involved in the Syrian conflict – first politically, then with its bombing campaign. And no one can explain why the refugees did not pour into Europe in the early stages of the Syrian conflict when a quarter of a million people were killed. “This resulted in the victories of the pro-Russian forces, or the forces tolerant to Russia, in the EU; those who have always been eurosceptics with radical sentiments,” he said.
According to the expert, marginal, radical, anti-European and revisionist forces may also win the elections at different levels in other EU member states, and it is “part of Russia’s well thought-out plan.”
Chornovil is convinced that the outcome of the second round of the French elections can be predicted: the population will shift to the right sharply and start practicing the principles of isolationism. And this euroskepticism is the very essence of the parties, supported or funded by the Russian Federation, or friendly tied with Moscow else wise.
The political scientist believes that this outcome is a sign of weakness of democracy, which cannot withstand a well-orchestrated direct challenge and direct sabotage. “The Russian presence in Syria, the flow of refugees into Europe and the victory of Le Pen in France – it’s all interconnected; but the democratic institutions are simply not able to oppose it,” the expert says.
So, if Russia remains in a current status, to a greater or lesser extent, at the time of parliamentary and presidential elections in France, the political scientist suggests that Moscow will use Paris to destroy the policy of sanctions and the unity of the EU. In this regard, Kyiv needs to do as much as possible, while France is led by the authorities loyal to Ukraine – the Socialists. Chornovil believes that in the future, we can lose France as a partner, and Russia can find certain leverage in the ranks of the new French political elite.
Moreover, it is not necessarily that such forces as the French National Front or the Hungarian Jobbik, directly related to Russia, take over power in the EU member states, according to the expert. “Some EU states may be led, for example, by political forces like those of Silvio Berlusconi or Nicolas Sarkozy, that is also connected with Russia, but also being nationalistic and selfish, therefore not being ready to concede,” he said.
Such future outcome of the elections in the EU will lead to greater imbalances since euro skepticism is growing across Europe today, as well as the role of the anti-European, fascist and right-wing parties. These are the forces that could tear the EU apart and become its gravediggers.
Full article: Kremlin’s French front (Unian Information Agency)