The View From Hubbert’s Peak
In 1971, the American President put an end to a 2,500 year trend; the Wall Street Journal called it “Nixon’s Worst Weekend.” Considering the old boy had some really bad ones, this must have been something special. In August of that year (on Friday the 13th) it was decided that the U.S. would no longer pay out gold for its paper dollars. OPEC Ministers took note, and in September they met, deciding it would be necessary to collect more paper dollars, if possible, since gold was no longer on offer and oil was the only asset they had to sell.
The Wizard of Oz
The ultimate irony for this generation of investors is that, despite the occasional obligatory chant about ‘free markets’ and the wonders of capitalism, most of the day is spent obsessing about what the world’s most important central planner will do next. By Supreme Central Planner, I mean, the Fed.
On September 17, the mighty Fed decided to do nothing, continuing a 9-year inning without a rate increase. (Did the markets breathe a sigh of relief? On the first full day of trading after the announcement the S&P fell by 1.6 percent and the Dow Industrials fell nearly 300 points; so, no, they didn’t.) This Bloomberg article suggests the Fed kept its powder dry because of China. “China affects the world more than ever before, and its influence over global markets will only increase as it approaches the U.S. economy in size.”
Gold isn’t doing much to suggest that paper money is on the ropes but you may still be forgiven for thinking gold is a crouching tiger and it is only a matter of time. Oz is the abbreviation for an ounce of gold – “Follow the yellow brick road”; that is the path of hard money. Nobody is on that path anymore, so currency wars, i.e. who can devalue the right amount at the right time to gain a competitive advantage for their nation’s trade, are to be expected.
The Next Suez Moment
1971 was symbolically pivotal in another way. The Royal Navy, symbol of British power from the time of Trafalgar on, pulled up its anchors and sailed away from Singapore (Churchill’s ‘Gibraltar of the East’), having left Aden (in Yemen) a few years before, where it kept watch over the Indian Ocean and its most prized possession, i.e. India itself, for 128 years. The liquidation of the British Empire did not happen overnight. The 30-year running gun battle with Germany leading up to the Bretton Wood’s coronation of the U.S. dollar as the world’s supreme currency was not quite the bitter end. It took another 12 years before the British ruling class learned that the sun had already set upon their power.
On July 26, 1956, Egyptian President Gamal Abdul Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal. The British and the French, who had financed and built it along with the Egyptians, were outraged. On October 29, Israel invaded the Sinai. On November 5, British and French paratroopers landed and defeated Egyptian troops along the Suez Canal. On the following day, Ike won an overwhelming electoral victory over Adlai Stevenson and, at the height of his (and America’s) powers, he told the British and French leaders to back down. America held their notes. The world held its breath. Prime Minister Anthony Eden resigned during the crisis and events effectively marked the end of heavily indebted Britain’s time as one of the world’s great powers.
The New Face of Money
Nobody plans to give way as keeper of the supreme currency, so there is no schedule to follow and no way to know when the torch will be passed from the dollar to the Yuan. Central planners and economists, who all drink from the same cup, may acknowledge that such a thing could happen decades from now (after all, Rome didn’t fall apart in a day), but will vigorously dispute the conclusions in this article. However, history has shown that the shift comes suddenly, usually in the heat or aftermath of war.
With a population four times that of the U.S., and a per capita car ownership rate roughly one-tenth that of the U.S., even an elementary school math student can figure that over the next decade or so, there will be a lot more cars drinking a lot more oil filling Chinese streets (even if most vehicles eventually run on electricity – a switch that will take a long time).
A military misadventure in that part of the world would be considered a direct threat to Chinese strategic interests. As Ike said ‘no’ in 1956, Xi Jinping may well say ‘no’ this time around. What would happen if China decided, or even threatened, to sell a substantial fraction of its trillion dollar U.S. Treasury horde? This may seem unthinkable, but even if they did not, after 35 years of falling and now zero rates, the direction is only up for the cost of money, as is the cost to service debt, along with the burden to those who are most indebted (i.e. the U.S.).
What should no longer be unthinkable is that the clock is ticking on America’s status as the holder of the reserve currency. If you still doubt this proposition, consider that China is in the process of setting up a third benchmark for oil, along with Brent and West Texas Intermediate, for trading oil futures contracts. And unlike the existing contracts, these will be traded in Renminbi. Who needs the dollar?
Alexander Hamilton’s face is on the ten dollar bill for a reason; he devised the system that made the U.S. the world’s supreme financial power. (Pretty good work for a penniless orphan from the Caribbean. He was also one of the few founders who did not ever own slaves.) If he goes off the $10 bill it would be a very bad omen. Susan B. Anthony would be a good choice for the $20 bill; she is already on the roster. Andrew Jackson does not deserve to be there anyway, as he was no champion of liberty even before he betrayed the native allies who helped him defeat the British. ( In 1814 we took a little trip, along with Colonel Jackson down the mighty Mississipi . . . )
Full article: The Clock Is Ticking On The U.S. Dollar As World’s Reserve Currency (OilPrice)