Many experts continue saying the second half of September 2015 and the first half of October 2015 is the beginning of a major and imminent turning point for the world economy — and much graver than what was seen in 2008 or the Great Depression. For example, former Reagan advisor Martin Armstrong and his forecasting model that has never gone wrong are predicting a hit in the first week of October 2015, or 2015.75.
See also: The Shift in Public Confidence: 2015.75
Batten down the hatches.
Societe Generale Economist Albert Edwards might have finally out-beared himself. He says the China devaluation is a step towards “a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”
In his latest note, Edwards says the Chinese currency devaluation is the beginning of a period of serious foreign exchange weaknesses in Asia.
We expect the acceleration of EM devaluations to send waves of deflation to the west to overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession. As investors realise yet another recession beckons, without any normalisation of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.
Edwards sees no easy way out of a deflation-led US recession, culminating in a financial market collapse. The emphasis is ours:
While investors have already talked about the eurozone looking similar to Japan, a deflationary recession also beckons for the US. Core inflation on the Fed’s preferred measure (core PCE) is hovering around the 1% level and a new round of in the currency war will see a move in core inflation below zero to accompany the headline rate. Prepare for sub-1% 10y Treasury yields and another financial crisis as policy impotence is soon revealed to all.