It’s not unforeseeable that America will lose its edge, if it hasn’t already. Given the high levels of secrecy with many regimes such as North Korea or China, you don’t find out until it’s already deployed — and quite often many officials within the un-intelligent community are “shocked” with each new development instead of staying on top if it beforehand. It’s actually more of a concern how behind they are on developments than the developments themselves. As the article states, Russia has the edge in its non-nuclear deterrent. What else is there that America doesn’t know about?
CSIS report calls for new policy in coming years or US will lose deterrence and over 11 states will go nuclear in mass proliferation.
Lead author Clark Murdock, a strategic planning and defense expert, warned in the study entitled “Project Atom” that American foreign policy between 2025-2050 will be bogged down dealing with rampant global nuclear proliferation if dramatic changes are not made immediately.
According to the argument, “rogue” states estimate that they will be able to defeat the US’s conventional military power by developing nuclear weapons, and therefore they will push forward on nuclear programs to gain international clout and power.
The warning is all the more relevant as North Korea has achieved a nuclear arsenal even after signing a nuclear deal with the US in the 1990s, and as a deal with Iran is set to be sealed by a June 30 deadline in the coming days.
The expert warned that if the US does not make the policy changes, between 2025 and 2050 two major developments are likely to occur on the world scene. First, the US will lose its deterrence ability as nuclear proliferation abounds, and secondly more than 11 nuclear powers will emerge after 2030.
Surpassed by Russia and China?
Murdock noted that Russia currently has the upper hand in terms of non-strategic nuclear force, and called on the US to develop small-scale missiles and other tactical nuclear weapons to confront this threat.
Aside from Russia, co-authors of the study Barry Blechman and Russel Rumbaugh warned that China will also be a major threat in the coming years, a warning strengthened by recent Chinese tests of a hypersonic vehicle capable of defeating US defenses and delivering a nuclear strike.
The two wrote, “given its 20 years of investments in building a more modern military and continuing economic growth, China could plausibly threaten the United States’ ability to conduct specific military actions in regions near China’s coasts within the next several decades. If realized, such threats could jeopardize America’s ability to fulfill its commitments to defend certain allies.”
Full article: Study Warns US Nuclear Strategy is on Course for Disaster (Arutz Sheva 7)