It looks like we’re going to see a painful first shot fired at Greece if they can’t come up with a deal. What exactly will happen out of this is anyone’s guess, but here are three (but not limited to) possible scenarios while Germany’s Fourth Reich drops the hammer:
- Greece capitulates and is brought to its knees and becomes a German vassal state like Cyprus. (40% chance)
- Win-win situation for all is found with dual economy compromise. A dual economy with weaker EU nations on the periphery and two currencies as in Cuba. (40% chance)
- Grexit with a following meldown of the world’s largest economy, the European Union. (20% chance — less likely due to high strategic importance and national security of Europe)
Just as we hinted earlier when we reported that the ECB may use the “nuclear option” on Wednesday and yank Greek ELA, here comes German Suddeutsche Zeiting [sic] with a report that Eurozone countries have reached a Greek emergency plan (yay)… which calls for the imposition of capital controls on Greece if no deal is concluded by the weekend (oh no).
From SDZ (via Google translate):The euro partners have agreed in the face of the solidified negotiations with Greece on a contingency plan for Athens. This became known on Monday in Berlin and Brussels. It stipulates that creditors want to give the Greeks initially another chance and wait to see if by the end of the week it is possible to Euro finance ministers to agree with the government in Athens to the corners to meet the current emergency program. The ministers meet Thursday and Friday in Luxembourg.
Elapses this deadline without agreement, to be convened without further delay a special meeting of heads of state and government in Brussels. In an interview for this is Friday night. At the special summit a political solution should be sought again. French President Francois Hollande warned on Monday against the failure of the negotiations. The deadlines were extremely short. “I have often said: caution, we now come in a period that can be turbulent, if no agreement is found,” he said during a visit to the air show in Le Bourget near Paris.
Full article:Eurozone To Impose Capital Controls On Greece If No Deal By Weekend: German Press (Zero Hedge)