Given all the problems the F-35 program has been plagued by, it looks at least at this time, that America might have lost its air superiority advantage in a conflict with China in the Asia Pacific. The United States would need entire carrier fleets to even bring the planes out there, which would then be thrown into the lions den of Chinese next-generation nuclear submarines — which ironically can pop up in the middle of U.S. Navy exercises and say hi without a problem. And that was in 2007, when the current generation of Chinese nuclear subs weren’t yet available.
In other words, America is in serious trouble if a conflict with the PLA ever breaks out.
You can thank the Clintons for the advancement of Chinese military technology that can make America’s defeat a reality.
The United States would be unlikely to defeat China in an armed conflict over the disputed Diaoyutai (Senkaku) islands, said Hugh White, professor of strategic studies at Australia National University in Canberra.
The possibility of a war between China and Japan over East China Sea exists, according to White’s article in National Interest. If Beijing and Tokyo start a war, it will be a tough decision for Washington as to whether to intervene or not. Even though the United States is obligated to defend the Japanese adminstration over the Diaoyutais under its mutual security treaty with Japan, supporting Tokyo would mean going to war.
“Either side could deny the waters surrounding the islands to the other’s surface forces; neither side could prevent the other from sustaining a substantial submarine presence there,” said White. “But a battle for air superiority over and around the islands might be more evenly balanced.” Under his estimation, the United States and China would likely face an inconclusive stalemate. The resolve for each side to take control of the islands would become the most important factor in deciding victory.
The United States would have to face a choice between accepting defeat and conceding victory to China after a protracted conventional war or risking escalation to a nuclear exchange if it underestimates China’s power and resolve. Until Washington is confident that it has greater resolve than Beijing, White said that the best choice for the United States to make is to avoid the conflict with China at first place.
Full article: US cannot defeat China over Diaoyutai: professor (Want China Times)