The northern border has been relatively quiet for the past six years, but during this time Hassan Nasrallah continued to closely monitor the developments in Israel. Over the past month I have spoken with a man who has dedicated a large portion of his adult life to studying Hezbollah and its leadership. According to him, Nasrallah learned to read Hebrew so he could understand the Israeli political system and the forces that drive Israeli society.
An analysis of Nasrallah’s recent speeches indicates that he has reached certain conclusions regarding the next conflict with Israel:
1) Rocket and missile salvos on the periphery do not impress the Israelis. Only a devastating strike on the Tel Aviv metropolitan area or on Tel Aviv itself, or an attack on a key infrastructure facility, will deal a serious blow to public morale in Israel and around the world and grant him the victory photos he craves.
2) The Israeli public is more sensitive to deaths among soldiers fighting on the front – “our children” – than it is to civilian casualties. So, from Nasrallah’s perspective, heavy casualties among the fighting forces will damage Israel’s internal resilience and undermine the public’s support for the war. Nasrallah expects that Israel will move five divisions into Lebanon.
3) The ability to intercept and down Israel Air Force planes will provide Nasrallah with an umbrella that will allow him to maximize the damage to the Israeli home front and shore up support from his target audiences. The sinking of an Israeli Navy ship will also be considered a great achievement for Hezbollah.
Full article: Hezbollah’s strategy: Rockets on Tel Aviv, raids on Galilee (ynet news)