The S&P 500 is set to fall another 8 percent by the end of the year, on top of the 7 percent decline seen since the year’s high reached in September, according to a new strategy note by Goldman Sachs.
“Uncertainty swirling around the “fiscal cliff” that must be resolved by year end, the pending jump in capital gains taxes at the start of 2013, and the debt ceiling that will be reached in late February, represent clear and present downside risks to the market in the near term,” wrote the analysts, headed by Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin.
Kostin said the fiscal cliff — a series of tax increases and spending cuts worth $600 billion due to hit the U.S. at the start of 2013 — will ultimately be avoided, but assigned only a 55 percent likelihood to the issue being resolved by the end of this year. A solution is dependent on Democrats and Republicans in Congress and the White House reaching agreement on how debt levels should be reduced.
Full article: Goldman to Clients: Brace for Another 8% Drop in S&P (CNBC)