Whether by following Global Geopolitics postings for a while or informing yourselves through various other news sources, readers have seen the developments in Syria unfold from demonstrations to violence. This violence has caused the international community’s involvement and from there has increased the threat level of Syrian retaliation toward its neighbors. We’re now at the tipping point to where all sides are ‘braced for impact’.
The next question is: What will cause the spark that leads to all-out war? One could look towards the use of chemical and/or biological weapons used on their own people or the Jewish state of Israel as one such indicator. Another possibility is the tension with Turkey spiriling out of control via military confrontation as we’ve seen in the past with the downing of two Turkish military aircraft.
Either way, the prospects of war is a question when and not if.
The US and its allies are discussing a worst-case scenario that could require up to 60,000 ground troops to go into Syria to secure chemical and biological weapons sites following the fall of the Assad government, an unnamed American source said Thursday night, Aug.16.
This scenario postulates the disintegration of his security forces, he said, leaving chemical and biological weapons sites vulnerable to pillaging. It assumes the sites could not be destroyed by aerial bombings in view of health and environmental hazards.
The American special forces deployed on the Jordanian-Syrian border and in bases in Israel and Turkey clearly perceive a chemical-biological weapon threat. Military and medical preparations are being quietly put in place. Reconnaissance teams from potentially targeted countries have infiltrated Syria. They are on the lookout for any chemical missiles being moved into firing positions, although it is taken into account that Assad may be shifting decoys and that not all the real launchings can be stopped.
The Syrian ruler may also decide to transfer chemical explosives to Hizballah in Lebanon. Israel is on record as warning it would prevent this.
Wednesday, August 15, Bashar Assad’s violence again broke new ground:
Syrian air force bombers struck Azaz not far from the Turkish border – for the first time with the aim of razing a complete Syrian town. More than 80 people were killed and 150 wounded. He was telling the Free Syrian Army rebels who had been using Azaz as their command post and logistical hub for the Aleppo battle that the gloves were off and the same punishment would be meted out to any urban areas hosting them.
The Syrian ruler also warned Ankara through back channels that if any more Turkish FIM-92 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles were supplied to the FSA, he would arm the 2,500 Turkish rebel PKK Kurdish fighters allowed to deploy on the Syrian-Turkish border with Russian SA-8 anti-air missiles for use against Turkey.
Ankara shot back: That will be war.
Full article: Syria’s neighbors braced for chemical threat. Assad warns Turkey on Stingers (DEBKAfile)